The US dollar index fell back from a two-month high, and copper prices closed higher overnight [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,589.5/mt, initially reaching a high of $9,601/mt. It then fluctuated downward, hitting a low of $9,496/mt during the session. By the end of the session, it rose again, closing at $9,563/mt, up 0.63%. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, and open interest was 275,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2412 contract opened at 76,700 yuan/mt, initially reaching a high of 76,800 yuan/mt. It then fluctuated downward, hitting a low of 76,130 yuan/mt during the session. By the end of the session, it rose again, closing at 76,590 yuan/mt, up 0.08%. Trading volume reached 49,000 lots, and open interest was 152,000 lots. Macro side, the initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending October 19 recorded 227,000, the lowest since the week ending September 28, 2024. Currently, traders tend to believe that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December. However, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch stated that there is no need to discuss a 50 basis point rate cut at this stage. Amid concerns over demand, oil prices fell, dragging copper prices down temporarily. However, as the US dollar index fell back from its high, copper prices eventually closed higher. Additionally, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it would further open major national scientific research infrastructure to private enterprises. Fundamentally, arrivals decreased, and market trading continued to weaken, with holders generally pessimistic about October. As of Thursday, October 24, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China increased slightly by 200 mt from Monday to 219,600 mt, still 54,100 mt higher than before the holiday. However, weekly destocking was achieved this week, though the destocking volume was not large, only 9,600 mt. In summary, although the US dollar index fell back from its high, market trading remained mediocre. Copper prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend at this level today.